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+function [I, J] = confiance(t, N)
+% Compute the 95 percent confident interval
+%
+% see Y. Bennani and F. Bossaert, 
+%     Predictive neural networks for traffic disturbance detection in the telephone network
+%     In Proceedings of IMACS-CESA 1996, Lille, France.
+
+Z    = 1.96; % this value for the 95 percent confident interval
+T    = t/100;
+tmp  = (Z*Z)/N;
+D    = 1+tmp;
+N1   = T+tmp/2;
+tmp2 = T*(1-T)/N + tmp/(4*N);
+N2   = Z*sqrt(tmp2);
+I    = 100*(N1-N2)/D;
+J    = 100*(N1+N2)/D;