New parameter learning options

The main change here is in the parameter learning methods.  The parameters that are learned at first (i.e., if there is no evidence) are the distributions that are found directly in the data. I had to create or significantly modify several BNT files for this.

If there is evidence, the parameters are learned using a Dirichlet prior. This only required a couple of small changes to the BNW parameter learning files.

1 files changed, 250 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/sourcecodes/parameter_learning/looCrossValid.m b/sourcecodes/parameter_learning/looCrossValid.m
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..67b04409
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sourcecodes/parameter_learning/looCrossValid.m
@@ -0,0 +1,250 @@
+function looCrossValid(pre,predict_label)
+% This function will peform leave-one-out cross-validation.
+% This requires the specification of the name of the variable
+%   that you want to predict.
+
+
+
+sfile=strcat(pre,'structure_input.txt');
+dfile=strcat(pre,'continuous_input.txt');
+nnodefile=strcat(pre,'nnode.txt');
+fnnode = fopen(nnodefile,'r');
+nnodes = fscanf(fnnode,'%d');
+
+Std_flag=true;
+[labels,cases,bnet]=readInput(dfile,sfile,nnodes,Std_flag);
+
+for i=1:nnodes
+    if strcmp(labels(i),predict_label)
+       predict_node = i;
+    end
+end
+
+predict_cases = bnet.node_sizes(predict_node);
+
+if predict_cases == 1
+	looCV_continuous(pre,predict_label,nnodes,labels,cases,bnet,predict_node,predict_cases);
+else
+	looCV_discrete(pre,predict_label,nnodes,labels,cases,bnet,predict_node,predict_cases);
+endif
+
+end
+
+function looCV_continuous(pre,predict_label,nnodes,labels,cases,bnet,predict_node,predict_cases)
+
+ncases = size(cases,2);
+
+%%Read in original means and standard deviations to report output as
+%% untransformed values.
+means_orig=cell(1,nnodes);
+stdevs_orig=cell(1,nnodes);
+labels_orig=cell(1,nnodes);
+%Read in original means and standard deviations
+mapfile = strcat(pre,'map.txt');
+fmap = fopen(mapfile,'r');
+for i=1:nnodes
+    buffer = fgetl(mapfile);
+    temp = cell(1,3);
+    for j=1:3
+        [next,buffer] = strtok(buffer);
+	temp{j} = next;
+    end
+    labels_orig{i} = temp{1};
+    means_orig{i} = str2num(temp{3});
+    stdevs_orig{i} = str2num(temp{2});
+end
+fclose(fmap);
+%Need to map the means and stdevs to the correct labels
+means = cell(1,nnodes);
+stdevs = cell(1,nnodes);
+for i = 1:nnodes
+    for j = 1:nnodes
+       if strcmp(labels{i},labels_orig{j})
+          means{i} = means_orig{j};
+          stdevs{i} = stdevs_orig{j};
+          break
+       end
+    end
+end
+
+loopredictions=zeros(size(cases,2),2);
+
+%t=cputime;
+%First get loo predictions
+for i =1:ncases
+%  i
+  current_data = cases(:,i);
+  cases_new = cases;
+  cases_new(:,i) = [];
+  evidence = current_data;
+  evidence{predict_node} = {};
+  [bnet]=parameterLearning(bnet,cases_new);
+  engine = jtree_inf_engine(bnet);
+  [engine,loglik] = enter_evidence(engine,evidence);
+  predict = marginal_nodes(engine,predict_node);
+  adj_mu = predict.mu*stdevs{predict_node}+means{predict_node};
+  adj_sigma = stdevs{predict_node}*predict.Sigma;
+  loopredictions(i,1) = adj_mu;
+  loopredictions(i,2) = adj_sigma;
+end
+%e=cputime-t;
+
+%Open output file.
+filename = strcat(pre,'looCV.txt');
+fileID = fopen(filename,'w');
+
+fprintf(fileID,'Variable that was predicted: %s\n\n',predict_label);
+
+%Calculate RMSEP (root mean square error of prediction) and q^2
+%First, calculate TSS (total sum of squares) and
+%  PRESS (sum of squares of prediction errors)
+average = mean(cell2mat(cases'))(predict_node);
+
+%undo standardization
+average = average*stdevs{predict_node}+means{predict_node};
+tss = 0;
+press = 0;
+case_adj=zeros(size(cases,2),1);
+for i =1:ncases
+	case_adj(i) = cases{predict_node,i}*stdevs{predict_node}+means{predict_node};
+	tss = (case_adj(i)-average)^2 + tss;
+	press = (loopredictions(i,1)-case_adj(i))^2 + press;
+end
+rmsep = sqrt(press/ncases);
+q_squared = 1 - press/tss;
+
+%% Print rmseq and q^2
+fprintf(fileID,'RMS error of predictions: %6.4f\n',rmsep);
+fprintf(fileID,'Q^2 of predictions: %6.4f\n\n',q_squared);
+
+
+%%Print the predictions
+fprintf(fileID,'Predicted mean and standard deviation for each case:\n');
+fprintf(fileID,'CaseRow\tActualValue\tPredictionMean\tPredictionStDev\n');
+for i = 1:ncases
+     fprintf(fileID,'%i\t%6.4f\t',i,case_adj(i));
+     fprintf(fileID,'%6.4f\t%6.4f\n',loopredictions(i,:));
+end
+
+end
+
+
+function looCV_discrete(pre,predict_label,nnodes,labels,cases,bnet,predict_node,predict_cases)
+
+ncases = size(cases,2);
+
+%This next section just gets the original names of the levels.
+% so they can be written to the output file.
+%%Get the maximum_number of states so array will be big enough
+%%Add 1 because the input includes the node name
+max_states = max(bnet.node_sizes) + 1;
+disc_nodes = size(bnet.dnodes,2);
+
+%%Get mapping of discrete levels.
+levelfile = strcat(pre,'nlevels.txt');
+flevels = fopen(levelfile,'r');
+levels = cell(disc_nodes,max_states);
+ndisc_nodes = 0;
+for i=1:disc_nodes
+    ndisc_nodes = ndisc_nodes + 1;
+    buffer = fgetl(flevels);
+     for j = 1:max_states
+       [next,buffer] = strtok(buffer);
+       if j == 1
+          levels{i,j} = next;
+       else
+          levels{i,j} = next;
+       end
+       if length(buffer) < 1
+        break
+       end
+     end
+end
+
+pred_levels = cell(1,predict_cases);
+for i = 1:disc_nodes
+   if strcmp(levels{i,1},predict_label);
+	for j = 1:predict_cases
+	    pred_levels{j} = levels{i,j+1};
+	end
+        break
+   end
+end
+
+loopredictions=zeros(size(cases,2),predict_cases);
+
+%t=cputime;
+%First get loo predictions
+for i =1:ncases
+%  i
+  current_data = cases(:,i);
+  cases_new = cases;
+  cases_new(:,i) = [];
+  evidence = current_data;
+  evidence{predict_node} = {};
+
+  [bnet]=parameterLearning(bnet,cases_new);
+  engine = jtree_inf_engine(bnet);
+  [engine,loglik] = enter_evidence(engine,evidence);
+  predict = marginal_nodes(engine,predict_node);
+  for j = 1:predict_cases
+	loopredictions(i,j) = predict.T(j);
+  end
+end
+%e=cputime-t;
+
+%Now compare with actual outcomes
+%actual_states = zeros(1,predict_cases);
+%for i=1:ncases
+%    for j = 1:predict_cases
+%	if cell2mat(cases(predict_node,i)) == j
+%           actual_states(j) = actual_states(j) + 1;
+%	end
+%    end
+%end
+
+pred_states = zeros(1,ncases);
+
+for i=1:ncases
+    max_state = 1;
+    for j = 2:predict_cases
+       if loopredictions(i,j) > loopredictions(i,max_state)
+           max_state = j;
+	end
+    end
+    pred_states(i) = max_state;
+end
+
+correct = 0;
+for i=1:ncases
+    if pred_states(i) == cell2mat(cases(predict_node,i))
+	correct = correct + 1;
+    end
+end
+
+accuracy = correct/ncases;
+
+%Open output file.
+filename = strcat(pre,'looCV.txt');
+fileID = fopen(filename,'w');
+
+fprintf(fileID,'Variable that was predicted: %s\n\n',predict_label);
+
+
+%%Print the accuracy
+fprintf(fileID,'Fraction of accurate predictions: %6.4f\n\n',accuracy);
+
+%%Print the predictions
+fprintf(fileID,'Predicted likelihood of each state for each case:\n');
+fprintf(fileID,'%s\t%s\t','CaseRow','ActualState');
+fprintf(fileID,'%s\t',pred_levels{1:end-1});
+fprintf(fileID,'%s\n',pred_levels{end});
+for i = 1:ncases
+     fprintf(fileID,'%i\t',i);
+     case_level = pred_levels{cases{predict_node,i}};
+     fprintf(fileID,'%s\t',case_level);
+     fprintf(fileID,'%6.4f\t',loopredictions(i,1:end-1));
+     fprintf(fileID,'%6.4f\n',loopredictions(i,end));
+end
+
+end